Random Thoughts I Think I Think

Peter King, of Sports Illustrated, is one of my favorite sports journalists.  I'm brazenly borrowing from his Monday Morning Quarterback features for this entry.

1)  I think I think China is going to replace the United States as the most important global country within five years.  Contrary to common belief, America's influence is not a result of the purity of our beliefs, the strength of our democracy, the power of our military, or the strength of our faith.  We have had influence throughout the world because, until recently, we have been the world's strongest economy.  For decades, the US was the number one importer of goods from nearly every country in the world.  Customers have influence, and we are the world's largest. 

Last month, China became the world's top energy consumer.  A few months before that, it passed Japan as the world's third largest economy.  Pay close attention to its natural resource consumption and agreements in Africa and Asia.  China is playing a long-term game of industrial chess.  Third world nations are its pawns, agreeing to infrastructure-for-mineral swaps and allowing China's million-strong army to provide security.  The US is the king it is trying to checkmate.  Our elected officials are the hubris-filled Spassky and China is Bobby Fischer about to topple us over.

2)  I think I think I'm glad the drought of the world's best sport is finally over.  Football camps opened this week and the Hall of Fame Game is next Sunday, 8 August.  When the NBA and NHL finals complete, the sports world suffers the agonizingly boring games of men swinging sticks at a small little white ball (baseball and golf both apply) until a real sport returns.  I am truly excited for the start of the season.  I've already begun my research and analysis for my fantasy football team.

Here are my predictions:

• Ravens, Colts, Jets, Chargers, Packers, Saints, Cowboys and 49ers win their divisions. 
• Cincinnati, Houston, Vikings and Giants will complete the playoff picture.
• Superbowl will feature the Ravens against the Vikings, and the Vikings will finally take it all.
• Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Seattle will occupy the cellar.  The Lions will near .500 for the season.
• Rookie of the Year will be Jahvid Best.

3)  I think I think the media is preventing our economy from recovering fully.  They highlight the possibility of a double-dip recession and focus on the fact that housing values have not increased, unemployment is high, and that consumer confidence is low.  They are failing to recognize those are old-school measurements.  Those are indicators of a consumption economy.  The US is quickly moving to a provider economy, supplying countries like India, Brazil, China and even Indonesia with technology and financing to support their ever-growing economies.  Banks are showing profitability again.  Caterpillar, maker of the machines that build infrastructure and extract minerals, is posting tremendous growth.  America, thanks to a depressed dollar value, is increasing its exports.  Businesses are hoarding cash because US consumption is down and they don't have a reliable model to predict consumption in third-world nations.  In the long run, their cash is better spent growing their business than getting 2% in a CD.  They will soon spend that money to grow their business, and that will create jobs.....assuming the media stops scaring everyone.

UPDATE:  Apparently, I'm not alone in this assessment.

4)  I think I think we need to drastically shrink our military, cut our military spending by 50% and redirect that money to finding energy resources available within our own shores.  This gambit provides several useful benefits.  First, we stop being customers to the world's terrorists.  Our current energy consumption is like buying from WalMart and hoping they don't use their profits to pave our neighborhood into a new parking lot.  Second, we can sell this technology to other nations, increasing exports and creating jobs.  Lastly, it turns China into the world's largest target.  If we're not dependent on maintaining a government friendly to us but unfriendly to its people, we'll have no reason to be in Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Afghanistan.  Let China invade them and receive the animosity.

5)  I think I think my wife will never let me run for political office, so I'll have to spend my time writing letters instead of writing laws.

UPDATE:  6) I think I think I need to proofread better before posting!  I just get too excited to share my thoughts.