Random Thoughts I Think I Think

Peter King, of Sports Illustrated, is one of my favorite sports journalists.  I'm brazenly borrowing from his Monday Morning Quarterback features for this entry.

1)  I think I think China is going to replace the United States as the most important global country within five years.  Contrary to common belief, America's influence is not a result of the purity of our beliefs, the strength of our democracy, the power of our military, or the strength of our faith.  We have had influence throughout the world because, until recently, we have been the world's strongest economy.  For decades, the US was the number one importer of goods from nearly every country in the world.  Customers have influence, and we are the world's largest. 

Last month, China became the world's top energy consumer.  A few months before that, it passed Japan as the world's third largest economy.  Pay close attention to its natural resource consumption and agreements in Africa and Asia.  China is playing a long-term game of industrial chess.  Third world nations are its pawns, agreeing to infrastructure-for-mineral swaps and allowing China's million-strong army to provide security.  The US is the king it is trying to checkmate.  Our elected officials are the hubris-filled Spassky and China is Bobby Fischer about to topple us over.

2)  I think I think I'm glad the drought of the world's best sport is finally over.  Football camps opened this week and the Hall of Fame Game is next Sunday, 8 August.  When the NBA and NHL finals complete, the sports world suffers the agonizingly boring games of men swinging sticks at a small little white ball (baseball and golf both apply) until a real sport returns.  I am truly excited for the start of the season.  I've already begun my research and analysis for my fantasy football team.

Here are my predictions:

• Ravens, Colts, Jets, Chargers, Packers, Saints, Cowboys and 49ers win their divisions. 
• Cincinnati, Houston, Vikings and Giants will complete the playoff picture.
• Superbowl will feature the Ravens against the Vikings, and the Vikings will finally take it all.
• Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Seattle will occupy the cellar.  The Lions will near .500 for the season.
• Rookie of the Year will be Jahvid Best.

3)  I think I think the media is preventing our economy from recovering fully.  They highlight the possibility of a double-dip recession and focus on the fact that housing values have not increased, unemployment is high, and that consumer confidence is low.  They are failing to recognize those are old-school measurements.  Those are indicators of a consumption economy.  The US is quickly moving to a provider economy, supplying countries like India, Brazil, China and even Indonesia with technology and financing to support their ever-growing economies.  Banks are showing profitability again.  Caterpillar, maker of the machines that build infrastructure and extract minerals, is posting tremendous growth.  America, thanks to a depressed dollar value, is increasing its exports.  Businesses are hoarding cash because US consumption is down and they don't have a reliable model to predict consumption in third-world nations.  In the long run, their cash is better spent growing their business than getting 2% in a CD.  They will soon spend that money to grow their business, and that will create jobs.....assuming the media stops scaring everyone.

UPDATE:  Apparently, I'm not alone in this assessment.

4)  I think I think we need to drastically shrink our military, cut our military spending by 50% and redirect that money to finding energy resources available within our own shores.  This gambit provides several useful benefits.  First, we stop being customers to the world's terrorists.  Our current energy consumption is like buying from WalMart and hoping they don't use their profits to pave our neighborhood into a new parking lot.  Second, we can sell this technology to other nations, increasing exports and creating jobs.  Lastly, it turns China into the world's largest target.  If we're not dependent on maintaining a government friendly to us but unfriendly to its people, we'll have no reason to be in Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Afghanistan.  Let China invade them and receive the animosity.

5)  I think I think my wife will never let me run for political office, so I'll have to spend my time writing letters instead of writing laws.

UPDATE:  6) I think I think I need to proofread better before posting!  I just get too excited to share my thoughts.

Sept 13 - Preparing for home

This was, by far, the most productive trip I've had to Indonesia. It's probably the most productive two-weeks I've had in my recent career. We accomplished everything I came here to accomplish, and I'm very comfortable with the outcome. What did it take? Me working in the office from 7:30 AM to 6 PM and then in the hotel from 8 PM until, on one occassion, 1 AM.

So, if you were wondering why I didn't blog every day on this trip as I did on my prior trips, now you know.

A few things I learned (or reminded myself of) on this trip:

1) Ramadan (or Ramadhan) is the Muslim Christmas. This is the holiest of times for them, and they celebrate it by fasting, giving gifts, celebrating family, and focusing on resisting temptation. I have a hard time turning away a bowl of ice cream each night.

2) Jakarta is a HUGE city crammed into a TINY area. When going 5 kilometers (about 3 miles for all you Americans) takes 45 minutes, you know you have traffic issues. This is a town without speed limits because the traffic itself prevents high speeds.

3) Peaceful plurality is achievable when you remove the notion that your beliefs are better than anyone elses. It also helps when the plurality occurs in pockets of homogeneity. The nation has 4 different religions, but each island has a dominant one that drives the government and culture for that island. If these were neighboring states, I bet the peace would be more tenuous.

4) Poverty and wealth can coexist - and often do. If anyone has been to Gross Pointe, Michigan, you've seen a mild version of what occurs here. In Jakarta, you can drive down a back alley, barely wide enough for two cars with their mirrors extended to pass each other, seeing throngs of people living at a subsistence level. In that same alley, there will be a 15 foot metal gate that, when it slides open, reveals a moderately guarded compound of 3500sf homes with personal swimming pools, shared playgrounds and tennis courts.

5) They don't get the NFL here. That really sucks. I missed the first full week of the only sport I pay attention to.

As one of my colleagues here said to me: "I'm really glad you came, but I'm really glad you are leaving". I'm really glad I came, but I'm glad to be going home.