Random Thoughts I Think I Think

Peter King, of Sports Illustrated, is one of my favorite sports journalists.  I'm brazenly borrowing from his Monday Morning Quarterback features for this entry.

1)  I think I think China is going to replace the United States as the most important global country within five years.  Contrary to common belief, America's influence is not a result of the purity of our beliefs, the strength of our democracy, the power of our military, or the strength of our faith.  We have had influence throughout the world because, until recently, we have been the world's strongest economy.  For decades, the US was the number one importer of goods from nearly every country in the world.  Customers have influence, and we are the world's largest. 

Last month, China became the world's top energy consumer.  A few months before that, it passed Japan as the world's third largest economy.  Pay close attention to its natural resource consumption and agreements in Africa and Asia.  China is playing a long-term game of industrial chess.  Third world nations are its pawns, agreeing to infrastructure-for-mineral swaps and allowing China's million-strong army to provide security.  The US is the king it is trying to checkmate.  Our elected officials are the hubris-filled Spassky and China is Bobby Fischer about to topple us over.

2)  I think I think I'm glad the drought of the world's best sport is finally over.  Football camps opened this week and the Hall of Fame Game is next Sunday, 8 August.  When the NBA and NHL finals complete, the sports world suffers the agonizingly boring games of men swinging sticks at a small little white ball (baseball and golf both apply) until a real sport returns.  I am truly excited for the start of the season.  I've already begun my research and analysis for my fantasy football team.

Here are my predictions:

• Ravens, Colts, Jets, Chargers, Packers, Saints, Cowboys and 49ers win their divisions. 
• Cincinnati, Houston, Vikings and Giants will complete the playoff picture.
• Superbowl will feature the Ravens against the Vikings, and the Vikings will finally take it all.
• Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Seattle will occupy the cellar.  The Lions will near .500 for the season.
• Rookie of the Year will be Jahvid Best.

3)  I think I think the media is preventing our economy from recovering fully.  They highlight the possibility of a double-dip recession and focus on the fact that housing values have not increased, unemployment is high, and that consumer confidence is low.  They are failing to recognize those are old-school measurements.  Those are indicators of a consumption economy.  The US is quickly moving to a provider economy, supplying countries like India, Brazil, China and even Indonesia with technology and financing to support their ever-growing economies.  Banks are showing profitability again.  Caterpillar, maker of the machines that build infrastructure and extract minerals, is posting tremendous growth.  America, thanks to a depressed dollar value, is increasing its exports.  Businesses are hoarding cash because US consumption is down and they don't have a reliable model to predict consumption in third-world nations.  In the long run, their cash is better spent growing their business than getting 2% in a CD.  They will soon spend that money to grow their business, and that will create jobs.....assuming the media stops scaring everyone.

UPDATE:  Apparently, I'm not alone in this assessment.

4)  I think I think we need to drastically shrink our military, cut our military spending by 50% and redirect that money to finding energy resources available within our own shores.  This gambit provides several useful benefits.  First, we stop being customers to the world's terrorists.  Our current energy consumption is like buying from WalMart and hoping they don't use their profits to pave our neighborhood into a new parking lot.  Second, we can sell this technology to other nations, increasing exports and creating jobs.  Lastly, it turns China into the world's largest target.  If we're not dependent on maintaining a government friendly to us but unfriendly to its people, we'll have no reason to be in Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Afghanistan.  Let China invade them and receive the animosity.

5)  I think I think my wife will never let me run for political office, so I'll have to spend my time writing letters instead of writing laws.

UPDATE:  6) I think I think I need to proofread better before posting!  I just get too excited to share my thoughts.

Another visitor

We moved to Jakarta at the end of March in 2009. My mother-in-law joined us on the trip out to help us get settled in. She left in April after spending a few weeks with us. We spent the summer by ourselves before moving to Singapore. Since then we have had non-stop visitors.

• My mom joined us for two weeks in Singapore.
• My mother-in-law made a return trip with my brother-in-law a few weeks later and stayed for 2 months.
• My dad and sister visited a few weeks later.
• My wife's father visited for a weeks later.
• My wife's aunt is with us now.

We have established a basic visitor routine. First, everyone must visit Hacienda. If your visit lasts a week or happens on a weekend, you will be going to Hacienda with us. A trip to one of the malls is also on the agenda. If you are here two weeks, or are willing to go by yourself during the week, you'll also see Taman Safari.

This time, our visitor's arrival coincided with the 1 year anniversary party for Hacienda. The party was an invitation only affair for their best customers. Of course, we are some of their best customers. I think we've probably spent more money there in the last year than anyone else has.

The party was awesome. Free food, free margaritas, festive atmosphere. We sat at a table with the sister of the waiter we usually have when we visit. She is a nice lady married to an Australian expat. We also drank far too much. Before going, I didn't think I would drink at all. I'd had a head cold all week and the one glass of wine I'd had earlier in the week made things worse. By the time we arrived, however, I felt the best I'd felt in weeks. I should have stuck to my original plan. I had a rough night. I still got up for work in the morning, but I was only able to work a half day and I prolonged my sinus agony for another two days.

Two weeks ago we hired a nanny. We really like her and she's great with the kids. We now have two drivers, a full time maid and a full time nanny. The nanny comes Monday through Saturday from 11:30 AM to 6 PM. Twice a week she stays late so my wife and I can go out - typically Thursdays and Saturdays. Thursday for us was Hacienda. Saturday was a trip back to the Indian restaurant at the Manhattan Hotel.

The elevator of the hotel has little placards inside indicating what is on each floor. Floor 3 is the New York Steakhouse. Floor 5 is the Indian restaurant. Floor 7 is the Ladies Only Executive Floor. We've always wondered what that was all about. This time, I asked our waiter. He explained that most of the visitors to the hotel are Arab. In the Arab (Muslim) culture, women do not mingle with men who are not their relation. If there is not a women's only floor, the only option available for the wives and daughters is to remain in their rooms. The women's only floor is for them.

The big event of this week was the Superbowl. I tried the last several weeks to find a way to get the appropriate channel for my house. Didn't happen. I then tried to convince my clubhouse that they should air it because of all the Americans in our complex. That didn't happen. So, we paid $18 per person to have breakfast at the American Club to watch it there on the Armed Forces Network. Did I mention that in Jakarta the Superbowl started at 6 AM, so we had to leave the house at 5:30 AM? I'd say that shows dedication if I wasn't always leaving the house at that time to go to work.

Amazingly, my wife and her aunt both woke early enough to go and watch it with me. They were looking forward to the commercials. Of course, the Armed Forces Network doesn't air any of the commercials, so they had to be happy with the game. Good thing the game lived up to the hype! I must admit that I was shocked by the outcome, though I am happy for the Saints and their fans.

I cannot begin to tell you the fervor experienced at my company, and the expats here from New Orleans. Our CFO actually flew to Miami just to attend the game. He had just returned from the US a few weeks ago, only to turn around and fly back to spend the weekend there for the game and come back. He told me he would bring a sign that said: "I flew all the way from Indonesia: Go Saints!" I did not see him on TV, though.

I did not get to watch much football this year - and my prognostication abilities greatly suffered as a result - but I was able to watch my favorite sport when it mattered most, and that is all that really matters.